Friday: Mostly Sunny, High: 72°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy, Low: 40°F
Saturday: Increasing Clouds by Afternoon, High: 66°F
Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Low: 31°F
Sunday: Afternoon Mixed Precipitation, High: 43°F
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General Discussion:
Temperatures in the 70s and sunny conditions cover Central Missouri on Friday. Increasing clouds and mid-60s enters by Saturday, but an overnight cold front drops temperatures to near freezing Sunday morning. A chance of mixed precipitation comes in by Sunday afternoon.
-Hughley
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Forecasters: Hughley
Date Issued: 02/27/2026 0930z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Above average temperatures (Avg: 48°F) continues in the region for Friday and Saturday
- An overnight cold front enters the state Saturday, bringing temperatures below freezing for most of Central Missouri
- Lingering cold air and moisture will encourage mixed precipitation Sunday afternoon
Central Missouri finds itself in the middle of a split flow at the 300mb level. Winds are weak currently (Fri 15z), only reaching to 40-45 knots at this level. A stronger jet streak is to our north, located in the Upper Plains. A weak trough is to our south near the Gulf states, and both regions are experiencing winds stronger than 80 knots. Due to the weak winds in the region, and lack of divergence as well, calm and sunny conditions are at the surface. These factors are encouraging the mild temperatures that the region has seen for the last 48 hours, and will continue to see entering this weekend.
This split flow is also causing Central Missouri to sit in between a ridge to the west, and a trough to the east. Being in the middle of the two systems causes a northwesterly flow in the atmosphere, which encourages disturbances to travel along it when the jet stream tries to move from the area. Calm and sunny conditions exit by Saturday 18z, and are then replaced with increasing clouds throughout the day. Increased divergence at the 300mb level during this time, along with relative humidity percentages surpassing 70%, helps the creation of mid to high-level clouds Saturday afternoon and into the evening. Moisture at the surface will be low due to the low-level jet being too weak (15-20 kts) to bring in moisture advection, and dew points being in the 40s during this time as well.
A northwest flow will continue aloft during Saturday overnight hours, but a cold front at the surface enters the region by Saturday 06z. Clouds will accompany this cold front, but it will be a dry one due to weakening omega values. The NAM presents a low-level jet from Saturday 21z, which then continues into Sunday morning. This will bring moisture into the area, but with lack of forcing, this will cause mixing to come down to the surface. Saturday night and Sunday morning will be windy, with winds gusting up to 25 mph in most areas. Divergence at the 300mb level enters the region by Sunday 12z, and this brings rising motion at the surface. Nevertheless, vorticity values at 500mb and omega values at 700mb do not increase until Sunday 21z. Relative humidity during this time will be around 95%, and moisture advection will take place with a strong low-level jet as well. Strong forcing after the passing of the cold front brings precipitation into Central Missouri by Sunday afternoon, but the problem with this system will be its precipitation type.
Confidence is high (>80%) that majority of the area will see some type of precipitation, and areas north of I-70 will see snow. Along I-70, temperatures will be in the low-to-upper 30s, and confidence is low (<30%) if this area will see freezing rain. Temperatures have a great chance (70%) staying above freezing, which then ensures a cold rain will cover most of the region south of I-70, but this system is still days out, so a change in the models isn’t out of the question
Future forecasters will have more on Sunday’s precipitation and what could come to the region.
-Hughley