Friday Night: Clear Low: 42°F
Saturday: Increasing Clouds, High: 70°F
Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy, Low: 31°F
Sunday: Cloudy High: 43°F
Sunday Night: Wintry Precipitation: 32°F
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General Discussion:
Temperatures peak around 70 degrees Saturday, well above the 30-year climatological average (48°F) for this time of year. Sunday night will cool off significantly with the passage of a cold front and bring about it a moderate chance (80%) of wintry precipitation. This precipitation will be short lived before transitioning to rain, with overall impacts from this system being minimal.
-Perrette
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Forecasters: Perrette
Date Issued: 02/27/2026 2100z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
Temperatures well above the 30-year climatological average (48°F) are expected to continue throughout Saturday.
Lingering moisture around the I-70 corridor will pair with an incoming cold-front around Monday (0:00Z), bringing the possibilities of mixed precipitation (80%).
Several rounds of precipitation are expected to impact the area next week; however, exact impacts must be monitored by future forecast groups.
Currently Mid-Missouri is situated between a split flow pattern, with an upper-level positively tilted trough situated over northeast Canada, and a secondary more neutrally tilted trough located in the southeast Friday (21:00Z). Flow continues to stay meridional throughout the region on Saturday (15:00Z), where 300mb winds peak around 90kts. Northwesterly flow aloft, partnered with minuscule lifting mechanisms, precludes any active weather Saturday. 700mb moisture values do increase around Saturday (9:00Z) lasting through Saturday (21:00Z). With this being said the NAM12 paints a more moist environment, with Omega values peaking in Mid-Missouri around Saturday (21:00Z), however forcing throughout the environment will not be present, so this moisture will likely (80%) be seen in the form of mid-level clouds. 850mb low level jet is also amplified throughout the Saturday (15:00Z)-Sunday (3:00Z) timeframe, which reinforces the idea of mid-to low level clouds to become present throughout the afternoon Saturday, as moisture advection during this period will be amplified.
Confidence has increased (80%) for a chance of precipitation Sunday night, likely (70%) falling in the form of a wintry mix of precipitation. Looking at 300mb, on Monday (0:00Z) Columbia remains in a meridional flow, packed in the middle of a weak wave. This wave on Monday (0:00Z) has a noticeable uptick in disturbances showing in the form of upper-level divergence. This upper-level divergence on Monday (0:00Z) corresponds to mid-level disturbances at 500mb, with heightened vorticity values being present throughout the region. Once again, a correlation can be made with the 700mb relative humidity values being around 95% at the time of Monday (0:00Z), peaking at roughly 98% by Monday (6:00Z). Looking at a cross section from the GFS, valid on Monday (3:00Z), shows that frontogenesis is possible between 800-850mb, as well as a concentrated area of elevated lift being present throughout the column. This shows that the best chances for a wintry precipitation event exist between the time frame Monday (3:00Z) and Monday (6:00Z). A skew-t sounding from the same period, also on the GFS, shows complete saturation throughout the column; however, surface temperatures sneak above 32 degrees at the surface. This reinforces that if wintry precipitation was to exist, it would be briefly lived, only throughout the period of Monday (3:00Z) and Monday (6:00Z). Any precipitation following this would fall solely as stratiform rain, with totals being minuscule (>0.1 in).
Looking into the future, a short-wave trough becomes present over the Pacific Ocean on Monday (15:00Z). Although exact outcomes are unknown, this would be the next substantial weather maker to impact the region by the middle of next week. However, in saying this, future trends of this system must be monitored by future forecast groups.
-Perrette