Friday Morning Forecast
Friday: Partly Cloudy. 78°F
Friday Night: Thunderstorms (90%). 56°F
Saturday: Mostly Clear. 60°F
Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. 38°F.
Sunday: Clear. 65°F.
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General Discussion:
Thunderstorms probable (90%) Friday night. Be on the lookout for damaging winds. Clearing conditions will follow on Saturday and Sunday.
-Fields
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Forecaster: Fields
Date Issued: 03/06/2026
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Thunderstorms Friday night, with potential to become severe.
- A cold front will pass through early Saturday morning that will lead to clearing conditions on Saturday and Sunday.
Friday
Early morning divergence aloft that was observed over the Midwest clears out during the day, but returns later in the day. This is the effect of diffluence from the deep trough that extends from Canada, through the Dakotas, all the way down into Southern California. Vorticity is low through the day until a shortwave passes over the region late in the evening, which is the main driver for thunderstorms. Sufficient moisture and lift at 700 mb adds to thunderstorm chances with RH values remaining steady above 75% through Saturday morning. This moisture advection is due to a persistent low level jet drawing in moisture from the gulf. Confidence is low in the chance for severe thunderstorms to develop, but with CAPE values ranging from 1000-1200 at this time of year, it remains possible.
Saturday
Divergence aloft exits the region by mid-morning and the weather begins to settle. There is increased vorticity throughout the day, but the passage of a cold front Saturday morning shifts 850mb winds to northwesterly. This cuts off the moisture supply from the gulf, and inhibits active weather. This leads to dry air dominating the majority of the column, and presents clearing conditions.
Sunday
Upper-level flow has a zonal shift which will allow conditions to clear even more. There is strong vorticity advection due to low over the four corners region covering the I-70 corridor, but insufficient moisture and lift discourages any active weather.
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Campus Weather Forecast 03/05/2026
Thursday Afternoon Forecast (03/05/2026)
Thursday Night: Scattered Showers, Possible Rumbles of Thunder. 55°F
Friday: Partly Cloudy, Windy. 78°F
Friday Night: Thunderstorms (90%). 48°F
Saturday: Sunny. 57°F
Saturday Night: Clear, Light Winds. 36°F
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General Discussion:
Late Friday night, a string of strong thunderstorms will be passing through the area. With these storms, there is a slight possibility of hail, strong winds, and possible tornadoes. After the storms have passed, temperatures will fall to the mid 30s by Saturday night.
-Kofahl
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Forecasters: Kofahl
Date Issued: 03/05/2026 2400Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Severe thunderstorm potential for late Friday night, with all hazards a possibility.
– A strong cold front will plunge temperatures after storms have moved out of the area.
Current Conditions (Thursday Afternoon 2400Z)
Current satellite imagery across the state of Missouri shows clouds across much of the state, with lower-level clouds centering on the I-70 corridor. These lower-level clouds are beginning to thin moving into Thursday evening. Temperatures at Sanborn Field reached 59.3°F at 3:07 pm. Current dewpoint temperature is 50.3°F. The barometric pressure has been falling and is 29.97 in of Hg. Wind out of the west has continued throughout the day, with a peak wind speed of 5.2 mph.
Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon)
A large area of vorticity, associated with a strong low-pressure system, begins to advect out of the Mid-Missouri region on Thursday, 12Z, with it clearing out of the area by 18Z Thursday night. Upper-level divergence begins to move into the area very early Friday morning, just after midnight. This upper-level divergence, along with present moisture, vorticity, and lift, provides favorable conditions for scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder late Thursday into very early Friday. Moisture in the upper atmosphere remains present for cloud development and further increases the possibility (50%) of showers Thursday night. This upper-level moisture sticks around throughout Friday, which will aid in our incoming severe weather potential.
Long Term Forecast (Friday Night-Saturday Night)
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large day 2 Enhanced Convective Outlook for Eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, and Western Missouri and Arkansas. This enhanced risk includes both Kansas City and Springfield. A slight risk has also been issued for most of Missouri, including Columbia and St. Louis. Both of these areas have the possibility of severe thunderstorms moving through on Friday.
A strong cold front will propel through Missouri, passing through Columbia, causing both temperatures and dewpoints to plunge. This cold front will be the initiation factor of the forecasted storms that will transport through the region. The passage of this front will move through the area by Saturday 15Z, dropping temperatures into the mid 30s Saturday night.
Diving into the storm risk in Columbia, there are 2 systems forecasted to move through the Mid-Missouri region. CAPE values are moderate with these storm complexes, with most models predicting MUCAPE to be ~1400 J/Kg. Lapse rates are +8.0 C/km, so the atmosphere is expected to be unstable. The lifted index will be -5, an additional indication of an unstable atmosphere. PWAT values are ~1 in and will continue to increase as both systems progress through the CWA until the cold front passes, significantly drying out the atmosphere. A large amount of upper-level divergence will be associated with these storms, promoting rising updrafts at the surface. One more note is that the low-level jet begins intensifying on Friday, causing any systems that develop to move quickly through the region.
The first system appears to be a bimodal event, a QLCS with embedded supercells. Sufficient rotating updrafts due to vertical wind shear (+40kts) and storm relative helicity from SFC-3km (+430) are conducive to supercell development. However, due to shear vectors not being strongly perpendicular and leaning more toward a parallel nature, this cues in the possibility of a bimodal storm system. Due to strong updraft potential as well as the rotation that is expected to occur, all threats (wind, hail, tornadoes) will be possible with this first round.
The second system that is expected to move through behind the bimodal event appears to be a more linear mode, with a QLCS propagating through the area along the frontal boundary. Shear vectors at this point are completely parallel, an indication that this system will be linear. Although, the supercell composite for this line of thunderstorms remains, which could indicate that embedded supercells can still occur. These embedded cells will be less widespread and likely, but still a possibility. Because of this, all threats will also be possible with this system, but hail threats will be lower.
Future forecasters should note that after the passing of the cold front, conditions should dry up as dewpoints plunge, inviting in clear sky conditions, as well as seasonally average temperatures.
– Kofahl