Monday: Passing Clouds. High: 83°F  

Monday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 68°F  

Tuesday: Clearing Clouds. High: 86°F  

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms (35%). Low: 67°F  

Wednesday: Rainy with chances of thunder (60%). High: 79°F  

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General Discussion:  

Conditions will be humid throughout the day Monday with rain chances increasing for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Chances for thunderstorms (35%) increase overnight Tuesday night with main hazards being hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are not ruled out but chances remain low. Thunderstorms and rain will linger throughout the day Wednesday with chances for rumbles of thunder expected (60%). 

– Graves

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Forecasters: Wyrick, Graves

Date Issued: 4/13/2026 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:  

• There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday Night (35%) with the main hazards being hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will linger throughout the day Wednesday (60%). 
• Mid-Missouri remains in a slight risk for severe weather according to the SPC, Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms possible. 

The GFS and NAM were used to account for variations in the timing of certain features throughout the forecast period. The HRRR was used for sounding analysis as its convective allowing status is useful during the looming active weather pattern.

Monday

Westerly flow dominates the Mid-MO region throughout the day on Monday before an upper-level troughing pattern begins to settle into the region. By 15Z, the jet stream begins to impact the region, and its effects continue through the end of the forecast period. The LLJ remains present through the entirety of the forecast period as well, helping to advect moisture and warm air into Mid-MO. Vorticity values remain elevated through the daytime hours, providing lift for passing cloud cover. This cloud cover is supported by 850 mb and surface RH values over 80% that linger until 21Z. Despite limited insolation, temperatures will climb into the low 80s, well above the seasonal average of 66°F. Additionally, the strengthening of the LLJ overnight keeps low temperatures elevated into the high 60s.

Tuesday

The weather pattern throughout the day on Tuesday is dominated by a mid-latitude cyclone progressing eastward across the CONUS. Early Tuesday morning, upper level flow begins to shift to the south as the aforementioned trough enters the region. Though the presence of the jet stream remains, wind speeds remain limited to 75 knots, indicating that it is not the primary driver of active weather in the region. However, wind divergence increases around 00Z on Wednesday, signaling the beginning of convective activity. Throughout the daytime hours, Mid-MO is positioned within the warm sector of the mid-latitude cyclone, allowing the above-average temperatures to persist. Clouds will remain present as surface RH values stay elevated above 80% until 21Z. At this same time, the passage of a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone enters Missouri, which will lead to thunderstorms in the early Wednesday morning hours.

Wednesday

Wind divergence remains elevated through 12Z on Wednesday, highlighting the window of time for thunderstorms. It is important to note that the GFS and NAM disagree on the location of this wind divergence, which may suggest that the most impactful storms could be north of the Mid-MO region. Vorticity peaks at 06Z, providing lift for the system as it sweeps across the area. At this same time, 700 mb RH values increase above 80%, showing where storms could fire across the state. The LLJ streak is present at 09Z, providing additional forcing for ascent for these storms. CAPE values associated with these storms remain above 2000 j/kg, though unimpressive direction shear may be a limiting factor, resulting in storm chances of 45%. The NAM suggests a mid-level dry air intrusion, showing that the main risks could be strong winds and hail. The passage of the cold front allows temperatures to decrease back into the high 70s. Future forecasters should be aware of storm chances for Wednesday night, leading into a clearer, much calmer Thursday.

• Wyrick