Thursday: Mostly Sunny, 67°F

Thursday Night: A Few Clouds, 49°F 

Friday: Chance For Afternoon Thunderstorms (50%), 72°F

Friday Night: Mostly Clear, 49°F

Saturday: Sunny, 81°F

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General Discussion: 

A strong low over northern Ontario leaves much of the region in a troughing pattern. A split jet flow will increase moisture and bring in a cold front, allowing storms to develop along the front Friday afternoon. Calm conditions immediately follow, with a clearing sky and lots of sunshine. Temperatures will increase to the low 80s as a southwesterly wind replaces the cold front with plenty of warm air. 

-Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes

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Forecasters: Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes

Date Issued: 05/07/2026 1500Z  

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:   

• Thunderstorms developing Friday 21Z (50% chance), with a possibility of up to quarter sized hail (20%)
• Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures (81° high) for Saturday

A strong low is situated over northern Ontario, remaining relatively stationary through Sunday. This is placing the majority of the Midwest in a troughing pattern, with an axis extending from northern Wisconsin to northern Texas. While the trough is positively tilted, as the low steadily tracks eastward, it becomes more vertical. As the polar jet rounds the base of the trough, it will begin to phase with the more active subtropical jet. With winds from the northwest advecting towards the region, a developing cold front will bring about the next active weather system Friday afternoon. The subtropical jet will also allow for an increased moisture profile. These ingredients, combined with increased 500mb disturbances will create developing storms around 21Z Friday. While the severe threat will be minimal, skew-T soundings do show a slight dry column above 650mb could allow for the development of up to quarter sized hail. 

Once the main system exits the region, calm weather will replace it, as Missouri is finally placed in a ridging pattern with high pressure. A virtually nonexistent moisture profile, lack of a jet stream, and calm conditions at 500mb will lead to a clear sky and calm winds. Temperatures are also expected to increase as winds shift back to the west-southwest. 

It’s been an honor to be one of your Thursday morning forecasters, and on behalf of myself, my fellow Campus Weather Forecasters, and my wonderful mentor, this is Keller Mathews, signing off.

Have a great summer!

-Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes