Campus Weather Forecast 05/07/2026
Thursday Afternoon Forecast (05/07/2026)
Thursday Night: Building Clouds. 49°F
Friday: Afternoon Thunderstorms (80%). 74°F
Friday Night: Chance Showers (30%). 52°F
Saturday: Morning Fog, Partly Cloudy. 80°F
Saturday Night: Building Clouds, Chance Showers (50%). 57°F
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General Discussion:
Thunderstorms are expected on Friday, and a second round of rain is expected going into Saturday night. During the day, warm temperatures are expected to finally return to Missouri, with high temperatures on Friday reaching the mid 70s and on Saturday reaching the low 80s.
-Kofahl
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Forecasters: Kofahl
Date Issued: 05/07/2026 2300Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Thunderstorms are likely (80%) on Friday, with another chance for rain going into Saturday night.
– Warm temperatures are expected to return Friday and Saturday.
Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon)
Phasing of the weak polar and stronger tropical jet is occurring over Missouri on Thursday afternoon, allowing for convergence in the atmosphere, creating stable conditions leading into Friday. Lingering frontal lift exists across Missouri, along with slight upper-level moisture, which has allowed for the development of fair-weather cumulus clouds on Thursday.
As the jet streak begins to make its way to the east, moving into Friday afternoon, there is a brief separation from the polar jet as it lags behind, allowing for divergence to bloom across, creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development early Friday night as another cold front passes through the area, helping to initiate storms. Moisture pooling ahead of the cold front’s passage will lead to partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions, as well as dew points surging across Missouri through Friday. CAPE available for further fueling thunderstorms expands along the I-70 corridor across Missouri with moderate values of over 1000 J/kg modeled across the region. Shortwaves begin to move across Missouri, allowing for thunderstorm initiation on Friday night into early Saturday morning. With this risk analysis, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a level 1 out of 5 risk for most of southwestern Missouri for Friday, with the wind and hail threat being greatest for Missouri. Upper-level moisture remains present throughout Saturday as another cold front sits along the Iowa-Missouri border, moving into next week.
Temperatures will warm up moving into the weekend, with Friday reaching the mid 70s and Saturday highs reaching the low 80s for the first taste of summer. With strong winds out of the south and southwest persisting throughout the day.
It has been a pleasure being your Thursday afternoon forecaster, and on behalf of all of the Campus Weather Forecasters, stay weather aware and have a wonderful summer.
– Kofahl