Campus Weather Forecast
- Wednesday Afternoon Forecast
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 05:00 p.m. CDT
Wednesday Night: Rain possible. Low: 56°F
Thursday: Decreasing Clouds. Windy High: 79°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 68°F
Friday: Increasing Clouds, chance of showers. High: 84°F
Friday Night: Chance of showers overnight. Low: 54°F
General Discussion:
- As the week progresses we are likely to see scattered thunderstorms popping up Thursday morning and continuing into Friday, where the clouds will break and Columbia will have a brief rest before storms build back up in the early evening, with the chance of severe weather possible.
Hayes
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Forecasters: Hayes, Slutter
Date Issued: 16 April 2025 // 05:00 PM
Key Messages:
- Temperatures are expected to increase with the winds to the South and radiative cooling shuttered by consecutive nights overcast by mid to high level clouds.
- Moisture advection from the gulf brought by the LLJ will interact with the area, bringing thunderstorms in the morning and scattered showers throughout the rest of the day Thursday.
- Friday afternoon into the evening, a system is expected to broach Mid-Missouri with the potential for severe weather, propagating off of an impactful cold front that will drop Friday night temperatures into the low 50s.
Technical Discussion:
Current satellite imagery indicates a building moisture over Missouri which will aid in the overnight thunderstorms that will linger into Thursday morning. Elevated K and TT values maintain the idea that these storms will be elevated and lightning will be present. Due to the intrusion of a few dry pockets close to the surface, these storms will likely produce less than ½ inch of rainfall amounts. The system will pass Thursday morning, cooling the atmosphere and creating the beginning of a cap that will play a crucial role in the next notion of weather occurring Thursday night. There are several prospects desirable to the formation of storms Thursday night, but due to strong CIN values and a dry slot occurring below the moisture layer, we do not expect rainfall, however the potential for a rogue storm to appear is between 10 and 20 percent. If storms are to persist, their impacts would be marginal, with the main hazard being small hail, as outlined by the SPC Day-2 outlook being 5% for the forecast area.
Friday morning, clouds are expected to thin as temperatures rise due to southerly winds and prefrontal warming, as we are predicted to exceed low 80s. Moisture and instability grows throughout the day as dew points increase, pressed forward by the LLJ. The CIN values are expected to decrease to more manageable levels in the early evening Friday around 00Z, and storms are expected to fire directly after, parcels being able to shoot up with the increased proximity of the LCL and the LFC. The dry air in the mid-levels working with the moderate omega output and excessive TT values will maintain the prediction of moderate to severe storms overnight on Friday. It is expected to accumulate ¾ to an inch of rain. While some model skew-Ts indicate a marginal risk for tornadic activity, this is due to a deep layer shear in excess of 50 kts and Effective SRH values near 200m^2/s^2, without taking into account lackluster CAPE values and an EHI of 0.2, indicating that we have great stability at the surface portrayed by the meager LLRs (< 5) that will inhibit the storm from becoming robust.
Future forecasters should note that these values are subject to change closer to the date, and the risk for severe weather may increase. They should also be aware that a cold front will be coming through late Friday night that will drop temperatures in excess of thirty degrees.
Hayes
- Wednesday Morning Forecast
Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:00 CDT
Wednesday: Increasing Clouds. High: 72°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy, chance of showers. Low: 56°F
Thursday: Decreasing Clouds. Windy High: 79°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 68°F
Friday: Increasing Clouds, chance of showers. High: 78°F
General Discussion:
- The latter half of the week will see warming temperatures and increased clouds. Showers are possible on Wednesday evening and Friday afternoon, although the total amounts of precipitation accumulation remain below 0.4.” Breezy conditions are expected in the afternoons, with gusts up to 25 mph. Nighttime lows are in the low-mid 60s, and daytime highs remain in the upper 70s.
Huebner
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Forecasters: Nightingale, Huebner, Chirpich
Date Issued: 16 April 2025 // 10:00 AM
Key Messages:
- Temperatures and cloud cover will increase Wednesday due to a ridging pattern sticking around through Thursday.
- The LLJ will provide an increase in moisture beginning Friday and persisting throughout the weekend.
Technical Discussion:
The GFS, NAM were used for this forecast as well as GEFS plumes for their agreement in precipitation accumulation.
Wednesday
As of Wednesday at 12Z, split flow in mid-Missouri moves out as the subtropical jet dominates at 250 mb leaving behind a subtle ridge. This will lead to warmer temperatures and clear conditions for Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Circulation at 500 mb briefly enters the forecast region on Wednesday at 21Z, and moves out by Thursday at 18Z indicating a possibility for cloud cover and increased wind values. High RH values (>80%) pair with rising motion at 700 mb beginning Wednesday at 18Z and are gone by Thursday at 18Z, allowing for cloud cover and possible showers for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. WAA is also associated with the higher RH values, which could mean a possible temperature increase for later in the day on Wednesday. Analyzed surface maps strengthen this probability, indicating the possibility for a few isolated showers on Wednesday night (21Z) into early on Thursday morning (18Z).
Thursday-Friday:
Winds at 250 mb shift from west to south by Friday, pulling moisture from the Gulf for Friday. Wind divergence early Friday through the end of the forecast pairs with a negatively-tilted trough deepening in the Rockies, strengthening chances for precipitation over the weekend. Circulation at 500 mb moves through the forecast area on Thursday from 09Z-15Z and re-enters the area on Friday at 18Z, sticking around through the end of the forecast period allowing for a possibly rainy weekend. Alternating bouts of WAA and CAA at 700 mb indicate the possibility for a stationary front on Thursday at 18Z to settle over the Central Plains through the end of the period. Persistence forecasting is beneficial due to the previously mentioned stationary front possibility. An influx of the LLJ on Thursday at 12Z provides moisture for the area and is followed by a wind shift to the west on Friday morning (12Z). The notable RH values (>90%) will persist through the end of the forecast period, which will allow for a greater possibility for Friday cloud cover. On Friday at 18Z, a uniform band of precipitation moves through the area and lingers through the end of the forecast period. GEFS plumes display a mean precipitation total of 0.4 inches for Friday. Future forecasters should take note of the lingering precipitation chances for the weekend and what it could mean for weekend activities.
- Nightingale, Huebner