Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 63°F

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 61°F

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 87°F

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 63°F

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General Discussion:

Cloud cover will continue to decrease into the overnight hours with a chance of fog early Tuesday morning, with warm dry weather moving in for the next few days. – Aldrich, Bean, Carrier

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Forecasters: Aldrich, Bean, Carrier

Date Issued: 09/16/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

• Dry warm weather leading to worsening drought conditions with no clear end in sight
• A ridge moving in from the west will prevent much of the active weather to our northwest and east from moving into our area.

Some diurnal showers and thundershowers developed earlier this afternoon thanks to some leftover energy from (the long-gone, yet still persistent leftovers of) former Hurricane Francine. At this point, that was our last chance of measurable rainfall for the foreseeable future as this forecast is being dominated by a desert southwest ridge that will move into the area – certainly, by the end of the week.

Looking at the 300-mb analysis, several large troughs of low-pressure exist to our west, and while the flow is somewhat meridional. the general flow of the upper-levels will encourage these troughs to skirt just to our west and northwest over the upcoming days. In fact, model guidance (both at 300-mb and 500-mb) suggest that an active period of weather will be possible across the upper-Midwest into the Dakotas. Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge of high-pressure centered over Mexico will move northeastward into the central plains by Thursday, allowing for gradually moderating temperatures (highs in the upper 80s), along with an increase in low-level moisture. The end result will be a return to summer-like heat and humidity through the end of the week.

Indications in the upper-level flow advertise an opportunity for a pattern-change for the weekend and into early next week, however, and future Campus Weather Forecast shifts will want to monitor those trends.

-Aldrich, Bean, Carrier