Campus Weather Forecast
- Monday 28 April 2025 Evening Forecast
Monday Night: Partly Cloudy/Cloudy Low: 66°F
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 71°F
Tuesday Night: Chance of Rain. Low: 59°F
Wednesday: Rain. High: 73°F
Wednesday Night: Rain slowing later in the night. Low: 60°F
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General Discussion:
The atmosphere is in between stability and instability as a split flow pattern begins to take hold of the region bringing with it chance for (although unlikely) severe weather tonight, and rain to the region Wednesday.
Iffrig
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Forecasters: Carrier, Iffrig
Date Issued: 04 Apr 25 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Split flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere will drive conditions favorable for severe weather but timing will keep that chance low
- Stay weather aware during the overnight hours of Monday and evening hours of Tuesday.
The story of the early half of the week begins in the upper levels. A negatively tilted trough is currently situated over the central plains and will begin to dig into the desert southwest. A jet streak will eventually propagate on the eastern flank of the trough, which in normal conditions will cause it to de-amplify. However in the current atmospheric setup, split flow evident at 500mb and aloft will allow this trough to continue to dig and advance eastward toward Missouri and the Ohio River Valley. This split flow coupled with Missouri being situated in the divergence region of the upper level jet stream will allow for conversion at the surface to begin creating partially cloudy sky conditions as of 4:00 PM Monday and throughout the overnight hours. The surface convergence, in tandem with mid-level vorticity will increase the chance for severe weather tonight and keep the sky conditions mostly the same throughout Tuesday into Wednesday when the probability of rain will increase.
The middle levels of the atmosphere will be the primary mechanism for weather experienced in mid-Missouri for this week. What is not exactly clear at 250mb is more evident at 500mb; a partially cutoff low is creating the aforementioned split flow and will remain in place for the duration. A series of shortwave troughs will begin to impact the region late Tuesday into the evening and overnight hours. These will advect elevated levels of vorticity to the region, although the impact of such will remain negligible at best for severe weather. Models are struggling to maintain a grasp of moisture in the mid-levels as current sky conditions are cloudy while the NAM and GFS would suggest otherwise. However moisture return cannot be ruled out as the trough and low begin to creep East and start to settle and weaken into Wednesday.
850mb and subsequently the surface will help lay out what could be an isolated severe weather event for tonight and the weather for Wednesday. At 850mb a story similar to the mid-levels is unfolding with moisture return taking place in the evening to overnight hours of Tuesday carrying over into Wednesday where the primary weather event will be stratiform rain. The shortwave events evident in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will also usher in omega in the lower levels increasing the likelihood of rain for Wednesday. That being said however, conditions in the evening to overnight hours of Monday are favorable for a severe weather setup. The only concern is the timing and situation of features aloft, namely the low-level and 500mb jet as well as boundaries. Current model runs indicate the two jets streams entering the region split by only a few hours, reducing the chance of severe weather significantly, but, if further runs have these jets impacting more directly then those chances realign. A dry line and cold front situated to the East over central Kansas, provided current conditions and timing stay the same/improve, will act as the forcing mechanisms for storms to fire over Western Missouri that could propagate to the East. Sufficient shear (both directional and speed) in the low levels combined with sufficient 3CAPE, DCAPE, and SRH provide conditions favorable for tornadogenesis.
All that being said, the current atmospheric setup does not favor that outcome, rather potentially some periods of stronger rain. Future forecast shifts should monitor the split flow currently in place along with the cold front advancing through for any storms to fire.
Iffrig
- Monday April 28th, 2025 Morning Forecast
Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 85°F
Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 64°F
Tuesday: Chance of Rain. High: 71°F
Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 59°F
Wednesday: Mostly Rain. High: 73°F
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General Discussion:
The day 1 convective outlook has Columbia inside of a slight risk. While the atmosphere is primed for severe weather some key ingredients are missing, such as forcing for ascent. Therefore, the weather we intend to receive is to be non-severe. What is prevalent is the low-level jet moving through indicating the expectation for rainfall. Over the next few days Columbia will receive rainfall totals under a half of an inch.
- Nobles
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Forecasters: Nobles, Elston, Schifferdecker
Date Issued: 04/28/2025 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Mondays forecasted warm up of 85°F is close to record breaking (88°F).
- Tuesday and Wednesday have chances of rain with Tuesday’s chance carrying possibility of thunder. While Wednesday has overall more persistent rainfall.
- This rainy weather seems to continue into Thursday and should be noted by future forecasters.
Current satellite imagery depicts thinning clouds over central Missouri. Additional clouds are streaming in from the southwest, leading to partly cloudy conditions today. Southerly flow and WAA will warm temperatures into the mid 80s, well above the average high of 71°F. Today’s high will get close to the record high of 88°F but will likely not break this record. Gusty winds will be present today, with sustained winds near 15-20mph, gusting up to 30mph. Humidity values will be near 70% as dew points rise into the upper 60s, leading to somewhat uncomfortable conditions for late April.
Overnight, chances for rain will increase as a cold front moves through. The highest chance for precipitation is early Tuesday morning around 09Z-11Z. The SPC Convective Outlook has Columbia in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow morning, but large impacts are not expected. Model soundings indicate surface cape near 1300 J/Kg and a totals total value of 52 on Tues 09Z . However, a lack of vorticity in the mid-level will reduce forcing for ascent and limit the strength of thunderstorms. Lower-level moisture will be present during this time frame and bring the chance for a brief shower, with some thunder possible. The upper-level jet will remain to the north of the region from late tonight to early Tuesday morning and keep the majority of severe weather impacts to the north. Following the passage of this cold front, temperatures will cool back to near seasonal in the low 70s. Additional rain chances are possible during the day, as there will be plentiful moisture and decent mid-level vorticity. These rain chances will be scattered in nature and result in around two-tenths of an inch of precipitation Tuesday.
On Wednesday, a deep, positively tilted trough will eject eastward and bring another chance for precipitation. A line of vorticity will move through around Wednesday 09Z, correlating with a surface warm front. This front will bring early morning precipitation chances, with additional precipitation near a tenth of an inch. Abundant moisture will be present from Wednesday until the end of the forecast period. A surface cold front will move through the area Wednesday afternoon around 00Z Thursday, bringing additional rain chances. Throughout the day Wednesday, mid-level vorticity and upper-level divergence will be present, providing forcing for thunderstorm development. Future forecasting shifts should monitor the frontal passages on Wednesday to refine precipitation amounts and timing.
- Schifferdecker