Campus Weather Forecast
- Campus Weather Forecast – Wednesday Morning, February 25
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 54°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. 80% Chance for Light Rain (<0.1"). Low: 34°F
Thursday: Sunny. High: 57°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 34°F
Friday: Sunny. High: 71°F
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General Discussion:
A weak cold front and cloud cover will help to temporarily cool temperatures, with a high on Wednesday of 54°F. A quick moving system will bring rainfall overnight into Thursday, bringing <0.1” of rain. No impacts expected. Get ready for a warm-up on Friday!
– Adkerson
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Forecasters: Adkerson, Wernsman
Date Issued: 02/25/2026 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- An 80% chance of trace rainfall is expected overnight Wednesday, with high end amounts reaching 0.1”.
- A stationary front is expected to build into Missouri throughout the day Thursday, creating a clear sky for Thursday and Friday.
Cloud cover Wednesday morning will continue as moisture is sufficient (~90% RH) in the mid-levels. A weak cold front attached to an area of low-pressure fixed over the Great Lakes region will traverse through Colombia around noon on Wednesday. Following the passage of the front, winds will shift to the NE, allowing for colder air to be advected into the region. However, a brief break in cloud cover following the front will allow for diurnal heating, limiting the effect of the cold air following the front. The high temperature for Wednesday is expected to be 54°F, cooling off from yesterday’s high of 62°F. Cloud cover is expected to return later in the day as 700-mb moisture increases.
Active weather is set to take place overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning due to a shortwave extending down into the mid-levels. Accompanied with this disturbance, divergence at the 300mb level increases Wednesday night.
Additionally, vorticity and omega values increase over Columbia with the arrival of the shortwave. The LLJ will amplify overnight beginning Wednesday 18z, increasing wind speeds Thursday 03-06z. Southerly winds from the LLJ will also help to peddle moisture from the Gulf into Columbia at 850mb. Models are in agreement with liquid precipitation type, as Skew-T analysis shows a warm-nose aloft for over 1 km vertically. Hydrometeors will begin to fall as snow aloft, but will have sufficient time to melt before reaching the surface despite the cold temperatures overnight (34°F). This system will swiftly move out of Columbia, so significant rainfall is not expected. All things considered, an 80% chance of rain is expected with accumulations not exceeding 0.1”.
Midday Thursday (18z), upper-level flow will split into two distinct streams, with Missouri situated in the middle. 300-mb winds will be weak (<50 kts), with no convergence at the surface. Following Wednesday night’s rainfall, two different surface high-pressure systems will move into the region. As a high over Kansas moves SE and a high in Illinois moves S, the interaction between these will begin the early stages of cyclogenesis, building a stationary front in Missouri. This will induce fair weather and clear conditions, helping to significantly warm up the region on Friday (high: 71°F)
Future forecasters should monitor WAA and decreasing cloud cover for Thursday for the potential of warmer temperatures.
-Adkerson
Tuesday Evening Forecast 02/24/2026
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 35°F
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 54°F
Wednesday Night: 70% Chance for Light Rain. Low: 34°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 57°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 34°F
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General Discussion:
Warm temperatures are expected this week due to a recent cold front that will bring an influx of clouds to the region. On Wednesday night into Thursday, a small shower has a high chance (70%) of bringing less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall to the area. After the shower, these clouds will clear Thursday evening into Friday.
– Grimm
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Forecasters: Grimm
Date Issued: 02/24/2026 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures for the week will stay above the seasonal average during the day (49°F) and night (29°F), however northern winds will keep temperatures feeling cool.
- A 70% chance of trace rainfall is expected early Thursday morning, with high end amounts reaching 1/10th of an inch.
A weak warm front has passed through central Missouri this morning causing temperatures to rise into pleasant 60s for the day. This warmer flow, alongside a plentiful spread of high level clouds will cause tonight’s temperatures to stay above freezing, hovering around the mid 30s, however 5-10mph winds will keep things feeling chillier. These clouds stem from a heavily occluded Alberta clipper low off to the north that Missouri is in the warm sector of. However, the cold front associated with this system has a surprisingly weak temperature gradient that will cause middling effects Wednesday night.
On Wednesday, initial conditions will be similar to today, as temperatures will rise into the mid 50s with clouds. Conditions will change slightly as the weak cold front from the north has a good chance (70%) to bring rain to the region closer to the morning. While the area has seen a stream of upper level moisture evident from the near constant cloud layer over the Midwest, there is only a small amount of omega tied to the passage of this front. While model guidance agrees in high vorticity during this time, cross sections over Missouri show a large pocket of dry air that will prevent most moisture from reaching the surface. By the time the front and associated moisture exits the mid-Missouri region on Thursday, there is only a 70% chance that even a trace amount of rain will accumulate. In the most extreme scenarios, where saturation occurs more rapidly than expected in the mid-levels, there is a 20% chance that rain for the area will exceed 1/10th of an inch. Temperatures from the cold front will slightly decrease but lows for the night will stay around the mid 30s.
After the front passes on Thursday, a noticeable break in clouds is expected, increasing temperatures compared to previous days (57°F). A high pressure system will hang over the Missouri-Iowa border causing conditions to be relatively calm going into Thursday night. Despite the lack of clouds, temperatures during the night will also be in the mid 30s due to the High pressure systems southerly flow. Future weather shifts should monitor the potential for a storm that could threaten a moderate amount of precipitation this weekend.
-Grimm
- Tuesday Evening Forecast 02/24/2026
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 35°F
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 54°F
Wednesday Night: 70% Chance for Light Rain. Low: 34°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 57°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 34°F
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General Discussion:
Warm temperatures are expected this week due to a recent cold front that will bring an influx of clouds to the region. On Wednesday night into Thursday, a small shower has a high chance (70%) of bringing less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall to the area. After the shower, these clouds will clear Thursday evening into Friday.
– Grimm
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Grimm
Date Issued: 02/24/2026 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures for the week will stay above the seasonal average during the day (49°F) and night (29°F), however northern winds will keep temperatures feeling cool.
- A 70% chance of trace rainfall is expected early Thursday morning, with high end amounts reaching 1/10th of an inch.
A weak warm front has passed through central Missouri this morning causing temperatures to rise into pleasant 60s for the day. This warmer flow, alongside a plentiful spread of high level clouds will cause tonight’s temperatures to stay above freezing, hovering around the mid 30s, however 5-10mph winds will keep things feeling chillier. These clouds stem from a heavily occluded Alberta clipper low off to the north that Missouri is in the warm sector of. However, the cold front associated with this system has a surprisingly weak temperature gradient that will cause middling effects Wednesday night.
On Wednesday, initial conditions will be similar to today, as temperatures will rise into the mid 50s with clouds. Conditions will change slightly as the weak cold front from the north has a good chance (70%) to bring rain to the region closer to the morning. While the area has seen a stream of upper level moisture evident from the near constant cloud layer over the Midwest, there is only a small amount of omega tied to the passage of this front. While model guidance agrees in high vorticity during this time, cross sections over Missouri show a large pocket of dry air that will prevent most moisture from reaching the surface. By the time the front and associated moisture exits the mid-Missouri region on Thursday, there is only a 70% chance that even a trace amount of rain will accumulate. In the most extreme scenarios, where saturation occurs more rapidly than expected in the mid-levels, there is a 20% chance that rain for the area will exceed 1/10th of an inch. Temperatures from the cold front will slightly decrease but lows for the night will stay around the mid 30s.
After the front passes on Thursday, a noticeable break in clouds is expected, increasing temperatures compared to previous days (57°F). A high pressure system will hang over the Missouri-Iowa border causing conditions to be relatively calm going into Thursday night. Despite the lack of clouds, temperatures during the night will also be in the mid 30s due to the High pressure systems southerly flow. Future weather shifts should monitor the potential for a storm that could threaten a moderate amount of precipitation this weekend.
-Grimm