Campus Weather Forecast
- Friday March 7th, 2025 – Afternoon Forecast
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 34°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 52°F
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 33°F
Sunday: Sunny. High: 59°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 37°F
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General Discussion:
Expect temperatures to be in the mid-30s Friday night, with a rise to the low 50s Saturday. The few clouds that will be around Saturday will clear by the evening, leading to a sunny sky on Sunday with temperatures nearing 60 degrees. It will be a great day for outdoor activities!
-Schwent
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Forecasters: Schwent, Scheerer
Date Issued: 02/21/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Fire danger is rapidly diminishing this evening as clouds move in, temperatures cool, and winds calm
- There is a slight (10%) chance of a brief drizzle Friday night into Saturday
- Sunday will be sunny and dry
After a dry and windy day with elevated fire danger, this risk is diminishing as winds calm from 20mph to 5mph sustained, and temperatures gradually decrease tonight. A low-pressure system located just east of Columbia, Missouri, is bringing a cold front with it. Expect winds to shift from westerly to northerly overnight as a result, which will result in significant cold air advection from a polar airmass in close proximity. Some clouds associated with this low-pressure system may reduce the efficiency of radiative cooling, but with calming winds and a drying atmosphere, temperatures are still expected to fall into the mid to lower 30s for many in mid-Missouri. There is also a slight chance (20%) of a brief light sprinkle overnight; however, this is highly unlikely, and even if it does occur, the probability of it being measurable is even lower (10%).
On Saturday, warming is expected to begin efficiently as any lingering moisture low translating eastward will move out through the day, leading to a mostly sunny sky. Model guidance (NBM, HREF, SREF) has clustered around a high of 52-53 degrees, so we will maintain the high of 52 from the previous forecast. This level of warming, around 20 degrees through the diurnal cycle, aligns with a mostly sunny day and calm winds, increasing confidence in this solution. A potent, positively tilted trough will be overhead by Saturday night, reinforcing the cooler air that arrived on Friday night, resulting in an overnight low that is very similar to Friday night. The only factor that could cool temperatures slightly further is that there will be very little if any cloud cover at all, increasing the efficiency of radiative cooling, however, cold air advection will also not be anywhere near as potent as Friday.
We will then find ourselves located on the eastern edge of a highly amplified upper ridge. North-northeasterly flow, combined with a dry surface, leads to high confidence in a sunny sky and calm winds. Effective solar heating will modify the current airmass enough to push temperatures into the upper 50s and possibly the low 60s. Additionally, warming will continue overnight as SREF guidance indicates that southwesterly flow will develop in response to an Alberta low undergoing cyclogenesis. This will keep overnight lows around 5 degrees warmer than Saturday night.
-Schwent
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Friday Morning Forecast 3/7/2025 10:00am
Friday: Mostly Increasing Clouds. High: 68°F
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 34°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 52°F
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 33°F
Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High: 57°F
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General Discussion:
Lower relative humidity levels, gusty wind conditions and dry fuels put Mid-Missouri into an elevated fire risk for the day on Friday. During this time outdoor burning is not recommended. Above seasonal average temperatures are anticipated for the day before a cold front cools temperatures heading through the weekend. With the passage of the front no precipitation is anticipated.
– McCluskey
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Forecasters: McCluskey
Date Issued: 03/07/2025 10:00am
Technical Discussion:
Key messages
- Dry and gusty conditions will continue through the day on Friday with an elevated fire risk in place through the evening hours.
- A cold front will sweep over the area impacting temperatures through the weekend.
- Conditions remain dry and mostly clear behind this frontal passage.
Earlier this week we saw a decent amount of measurable precipitation about 1.2” recorded at Sanborn field. However, even with moist ground conditions we are still in an elevated fire risk through the day. Relative humidity levels are expected to drop into the 30s, with wind gust reaching the middle 30s. This conditions paired with dry ground fuels make outdoor burning a hazard and very dangerous. While we had rain earlier this week that help aid in dampening fuels, dry conditions could have been worse with out the early week precipitation. This elevated risk is expected to persist through the evening hours. Future forecasters should watch out for enhanced fire weather risk as precipitation and moisture will be lacking in the next several days.
A low pressure system is current positioned just west of Missouri with an associated cold front stretching through Colorado. Throughout the day temperatures are expect to warm just below 70 degrees. As the low advances though the state the cold front will began to impact the area. The approaching front will cause increasing cloud cover through the day as seen on satellite and HREF model guidance. With the passage of this frontal boundary temperatures are anticipated to return to near seasonal (Avg HI: 53F, L:33F). The 540 line will pop in during the overnight hours Friday and Saturday, after the passage helping cool off temperatures overnight just above freezing. No precipitation is expected with the passage for this boundary as upper level moisture is lacking through Missouri at 700mb. Behind the system high pressure shimmies in from the Nebraska help keep the skies clear and dry through the forecast period.
-McCluskey