Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 34°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 52°F
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 33°F
Sunday: Sunny. High: 59°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 37°F
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General Discussion:
Expect temperatures to be in the mid-30s Friday night, with a rise to the low 50s Saturday. The few clouds that will be around Saturday will clear by the evening, leading to a sunny sky on Sunday with temperatures nearing 60 degrees. It will be a great day for outdoor activities!
-Schwent
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Forecasters: Schwent, Scheerer
Date Issued: 02/21/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Fire danger is rapidly diminishing this evening as clouds move in, temperatures cool, and winds calm
- There is a slight (10%) chance of a brief drizzle Friday night into Saturday
- Sunday will be sunny and dry
After a dry and windy day with elevated fire danger, this risk is diminishing as winds calm from 20mph to 5mph sustained, and temperatures gradually decrease tonight. A low-pressure system located just east of Columbia, Missouri, is bringing a cold front with it. Expect winds to shift from westerly to northerly overnight as a result, which will result in significant cold air advection from a polar airmass in close proximity. Some clouds associated with this low-pressure system may reduce the efficiency of radiative cooling, but with calming winds and a drying atmosphere, temperatures are still expected to fall into the mid to lower 30s for many in mid-Missouri. There is also a slight chance (20%) of a brief light sprinkle overnight; however, this is highly unlikely, and even if it does occur, the probability of it being measurable is even lower (10%).
On Saturday, warming is expected to begin efficiently as any lingering moisture low translating eastward will move out through the day, leading to a mostly sunny sky. Model guidance (NBM, HREF, SREF) has clustered around a high of 52-53 degrees, so we will maintain the high of 52 from the previous forecast. This level of warming, around 20 degrees through the diurnal cycle, aligns with a mostly sunny day and calm winds, increasing confidence in this solution. A potent, positively tilted trough will be overhead by Saturday night, reinforcing the cooler air that arrived on Friday night, resulting in an overnight low that is very similar to Friday night. The only factor that could cool temperatures slightly further is that there will be very little if any cloud cover at all, increasing the efficiency of radiative cooling, however, cold air advection will also not be anywhere near as potent as Friday.
We will then find ourselves located on the eastern edge of a highly amplified upper ridge. North-northeasterly flow, combined with a dry surface, leads to high confidence in a sunny sky and calm winds. Effective solar heating will modify the current airmass enough to push temperatures into the upper 50s and possibly the low 60s. Additionally, warming will continue overnight as SREF guidance indicates that southwesterly flow will develop in response to an Alberta low undergoing cyclogenesis. This will keep overnight lows around 5 degrees warmer than Saturday night.
-Schwent