Tuesday Morning Forecast 10/07/2025
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy, High: 74°F
Tuesday Night: Clear, Low: 48°F
Wednesday: Clear, High: 73°F
Wednesday Night: Clear, Low: 48°F
Thursday: Clear, High: 73°F
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General Discussion:
After a cold front moved through Missouri last night, we will experience cooler and drier air as the week progresses. This being said, precipitation is highly unlikely during this forecast period. A break from the heat will occur, as we will see high temperatures in the low 70s with low relative humidity after Tuesday afternoon.
-Houlihan, Mathews, Bivens
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Forecasters: Houlihan, Mathews, Bivens
Date Issued: 10/07/2025 14:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Moist conditions will dissipate by Wednesday morning
- About average temperatures (72°F) with highs in the low 70s
An eastward moving positively tilted trough, with its axis spanning from Minnesota to Northern Missouri, indicates that our weather will be settled and calm with low chances for storms during the remainder of our forecast period. This trough transitions into a ridge which occupies most of the CONUS by Thursday night. Although this transition is outside of our forecast period, it is worth noting and will help us, and future groups, explain the warm up towards the end of this week and into the weekend. At 500mb, there is a noticeable increase in vorticity starting Wednesday at 12:00Z until Thursday at 3:00Z. Although we see sufficient circulation for storm production, it seems unlikely that any severe weather will occur due to the dramatic lack of moisture in the atmosphere at this time (Wednesday at 12:00Z until Thursday at 3:00Z).
Following the recent cold front that passed through Missouri moving Southeast, we can expect dry air due to northerly winds bringing in cool and dry air. Thursday at 6:00Z, the aforementioned area of vorticity over Southeast Missouri coincides with a low pressure system that forms along the border of Tennessee and Arkansas that will likely increase vorticity in Missouri as it develops. At the 700mb level, there is high moisture across Missouri until Tuesday night, where there is a shift from moist air to dry air. Both models, NAM and GFS, are notably in agreement for moisture amounts with low discrepancy. Moving to the 850mb level, high relative humidity follows the trend of our moisture and dissipates by Wednesday. Additionally, a high pressure system moves over Northern Missouri to Northern Illinois by Thursday morning. At our surface, following the cold front that passed through Missouri, we will experience dry conditions. For our next forecast shift, it is imperative that they pay close attention to the ridge forming over the CONUS, as it will likely result in an increase in temperatures over the weekend.
-Houlihan, Mathews, Bivens
Monday Night: Increasing cloud cover. Low: 60°F
Tuesday: Chance of scattered showers. High: 70°F
Tuesday Night. Clearing skies late. Low: 48°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 73°F
Wednesday Night: Clear: 48°F
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General Discussion:
A cold front currently in northwestern Missouri is expected to move through Mid-Missouri overnight into Tuesday morning. Small chance of showers are expected Tuesday morning associated with the cold front. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will be in Mid-Missouri Wednesday.
– Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston
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Forecasters: Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston
Date Issued: 10/06/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A cold front will pass through tonight, bringing cooler temperatures with a chance of showers.
- Cool down is expected in the next two days after the cold front passes, but clearer skies will be in Mid-Missouri by Wednesday morning.
Currently at the 250MB level, winds are out of the southwest at 50kt-60kts. Stronger divergence values enter the region by Tuesday 03z, this will increase the lift in our atmosphere, causing it to be unstable. This trough and associated cold front will move into Mid-Missouri by Tuesday Morning. At the 500MB level, currently there are 30kt-50kt winds coming from the southwest. Heading into Tuesday morning, the NAM model shows higher vorticity values at Tuesday 09z. With these higher values, this will increase our chances for showers to enter the region, but we’re expecting a low chance (10%-15%) of showers. Moisture associated with the cold front is abundant at the 700MB and 850MB levels Monday night through Tuesday. The cold front will pass in the early hours of Tuesday morning (4AM-5AM). A wind shift is present at the 850MB level, from south to west, but will eventually turn north as the day goes on Tuesday.
As we head into Wednesday, the trough moves east and out of our area, and a high pressure builds into the region. The 250MB level has weaker winds (20kt-30kt) in our area by Wednesday 15z, with stronger winds (50kt-60kt) near the MO/AR border. At the 500MB level, strong values of vorticity will be in the region, but due to the lack of moisture from the high pressure centered over MO/IA, nothing will come from it. On Wednesday, ridging builds in from the trough moving east. This will lead to sunny skies and seasonal temperatures (70°F) in the region. Moisture will not be present due to the high pressure building in near eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Winds will be out of the north as well, which will also limit moisture in the Mid-Missouri area.
– Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston