|Dr. Anthony R. Lupo
|Jane Niemeyer - PhD
||Jordan Rabinowitz - PhD
||Sarah Balkissoon - PhD
|Joe Renken - KOPN/LRF
|The primary mission of this research program is to gain a better understanding
of the synoptic and planetary-scale atmospheric processes contribute to
the formation and maintenance of such atmospheric phenomenon known as blocking
anticyclones and how interannual variations and/or global climate change
may impact on their characteristics and occurrence. Blocking anticyclones
are planetary-scale phenomenon, which have an impact, not only on the regions
they occur in, but also within regions upstream and downstream of the main
event. In examining the issues of interannual variability of blocking and
changes in their climatological characteristics, and variability of the
primary variables of the atmosphere’s global circulation, local climate
change issues can also be addressed. For example, this program endeavors
to examine the climatic and dynamic characteristics of heavy snowfalls,
general precipitation, and tornadoes in the Midwest. We have shown that
there is significant interannual variability in these local phenomenon which
can be related to El Nino and longer-term climatic variability. This group
has also examined the changes in the climatic character of Atlantic Basin
hurricane intensities. Additionally, we will address the length of the growing
season in Missouri. These issues will be explored in cooperation with the
Missouri Climate Center and the National Weather Service Forecast Offices
in Pleasant Hill, MO, and Springfield, MO. Our international partners in study include scientists at the Russian Academy of Science, as well as Belgorod State University in Belgorod Russia. In examining and identifying
the interannual variability and/or long term trends (climate change) for
these events, the interests of the local agricultural and public sectors
will be served.
Long Range Forecasting - Seasonal and Subseasonal
Sub-Seasonal Forecasting - Flow Regimes
Forecasting Flow Regime Transition using Integrated Enstrophy (IE)
Our Long Range Forecast for Summer 2021
Our Long Range Forecast for Winter 2021-2022
Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2019 and Verification!
Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2020 and Verification!
Our Atlantic Region Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2021
Take a look at what others predict in 2021
Coming Soon - Subseasonal Forecasts - BSR/EAR/SOI/MJO
The National Drought Information System (NIDIS) – (drought.gov) held a Long Range (Weather) Forecasting Rodeo (sponsored by the United States Bureau of Reclamation) for one year to make Temperature and Precipitation forecasts for the 3-4 Week and 5-6 week timeframe. The forecasts were made for the Western half of the USA. The Rodeo lasted from May 2017 – to May 2018 and the prizes were $100,000.00 for 1st place. The Rodeo drew over 200 research groups from around the world into the competition including a group within the Global Climate Change Group in the School of Natural Resources and collaborators. Our group used techniques developed in our research.
Check and see how we did. We are team LupoA13
Links to our research partners and meteorology societies.
Products (Archive or log of Northern and Southern Hemisphere Blocking)
Enclosed is an archive of Northern and Southern Hemisphere blocking events including complete information regarding when and where they occurred, and their intensity as defined by Weidenmann et al. (2002). In this day and age, this blocking log could be called the Climate Change Group "Blocking Log" or "Blog" for short. Here is a review paper on blocking (Lupo 2021) and a conference paper (Lupo-Jensen-Mokhov-Timazhev) that discusses global blocking up to mid-2018
*****New for 2021. The Latitude of the block onset has been added as a new column 9. this has been added for 1975 to 2020 and will be included going forward and supplemented going backward.
- Column 1 = where: 0 = Atlantic (80W-40E), 1 = Pacific (140E-100W), 2 = Continental (NH) or Indian (SH)
- Column 2 = number of days block persisted
- Column 3 = time block began 0 = 0000 UTC, 1 = 1200 UTC
- Column 4 = Day of the Month block began
- Column 5 = time block ended 0 = 0000 UTC, 1 = 1200 UTC
- Column 6 = Day of the Month block ended
- Column 7 = Wiedenmann et al. Block Intensity
- Column 8 = Longitude at block onset, negative (positive) is west (east) longitude.
- Column 9 = Latitude at block onset.
- Column 10 = Block size (km)
- Column 11 = season the blocking event is credited to, 1 = summer, 2 = fall, 3 = winter, 4 = spring
- Column 12 = calendar month the blocking event is credited to, 1= January, etc.
- Column 13 = blocking year, beginning with 1 January (SH) and 1 July (NH)
- (e.g., in SH, 1970 is January 1970 - December 1970, in NH 1970 is July 1970 - June 1971)
- NOTE: Beginning with July 2010, we will include a variable called block size (See Lupo et al. 1995). This will be the half-wavelength. This will be the new column 7 and units will be in kilometers. Then columns 7-9 will become columns 8 - 10. Graduate student Justin Abraham will also work from July 2010 backward.
Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review
Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002
Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2019 are now here!
Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 - 2021 (up to 12 October 2021) in PDF format
Northern Hemisphere Events 1968 (July 1) - 2021 (up to 12 October 2021) in an Excel Spreadsheet
Southern Hemisphere Events 1970 - 2020 are now here!
Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2021 (up to 12 October 2021) in PDF format
Southern Hemisphere Events 1969 - 2021 (up to 12 October 2021) in an Excel Spreadsheet
Selected Journal / Conference Papers
Blocking / Atmospheric Dynamics
The Atmospheric Dynamics of Drought (2021) - Kononova, Semenova, Lebedeva, and myself.
Balkissoon et al. (2021) Chaos and Forecasting wind speeds using Emprical Dynamic Models
Klaus et al. (2020) Integrated Enstrophy and predictability in an operational Ensemble
Balkissoon, Fox, and Lupo 2020 - Wind Energy, Wind Time Series, and Fractals
Balkissoon et al. 2020: Integrated Enstrophy, Florence, and SDOIC
Kononova and Lupo 2020 - NH flow regime dynamics and Information Entropy
Kononova and Lupo 2020 - IOP Paper - NH flow regime dynamics Societal Impact
Reynolds et al. - Block - Cyclone dynamics
JRab and Atmospheric Rivers
Lupo, Jensen, Mokhov, Wang 2018, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections 2018
Lebedeva et al 2019 - NH Circulation regimes.
Kutta et al 2018 - Symmetry in ENSO energy fluxes
Blocking and Climate Change Woollings et al. 2018
Using Integrated Regional Enstrophy in a near term Climate Simulation - Jensen et al. 2018
Integrated Regional Enstrophy, Block Intensity, Kolmogorov Entropy - Jensen et al. 2017
Atmospheric Blocking, Ozone, and Water Vapor - Sitnov et al. 2017
Lupo, Li, Feng, Fox, Simpson, Rabinowitz: SDOIC versus RDOIC
Jensen 2015: Blocking Dynamics, a good paper
Crandall et al. 2016: A Diabatic Q-Vector - folding in diabatic heating into the Q-Vector
The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia (in Russian)
The relation of Soil type to climate change in Southeast Europe and Southern Russia
Global and Planetary Change: Back to the Future....of blocking
Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2015, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnections
Lupo, Colucci, Mokhov, Wang 2014, Editorial note for special issue: Large-scale Dynamics, Anomalous Flows, and Teleconnectoins
Jensen and Lupo 2014, Enstrophy Deformation, Dynamics of Oceans and Atmospheres.
Sitnov, Mokhov and Lupo 2013, The water vapor plume in the Russian Block of 2010
Wang, Lupo, Qin, 2013, Tellus A - ENSO - mid-latitude feedbacks
The Leadoff Chapter on Models for the Latest NIPPC report (NIPCC2)
T Lupo, I Mokhov, Y Chendev, M. Lebedeva, M. Akperov, and J. Hubbart (2014) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Summer Season Drought in Russia
Jensen and Lupo (2013) Advances in Meteorology Special Issue - Ensemble model diagnostic
Jensen and Lupo (2013) QJRMS - something new on blocking
Market, Rochette, Lupo (2013) Atms Sci Let - Montgomery stream Function- glad to be teamed up with my colleagues!
Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (English version)
Doklady: Mokhov et al. Blocking Tendencies for the NH back to 1871 and in the Future! (Russian version)
Advances in Meteorology: Russian Drought of 2010 - Lupo et al 2012
JGR Atmospheres Y. Wang et al. 2011 - Tibet Plateau
Sensitive Dependence Case Study: Schnetz et al. (2010)
Advances in Meteorology: Hussain and Lupo 2010
Monthly Weather Review: Wang and Lupo 2009
Monthly Weather Review: Tilly et al. 2008
Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. Part I 2007
Journal of Atmospheric Science: Luo et al. 2007 Part II
Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in Russian)
Izvestia paper: Lupo et al. 2007 (in English)
Journal of Atmospheric Science: Burkhardt and Lupo 2005
Weather and Forecasting: Lupo and Market 2003
Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 2002
Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 2001
Mesoscale dynamics: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2000
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: Lupo and Bosart 1999
Monthly Weather Review: Lupo and Smith 1998
Monthly Weather Review: Lupo 1997
Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995
King et al. 1995
Monthly Weather Review: Lupo et al. 1992
Tellus: Uhl et al. 1992
Climate / Climate Variability
Annals of the New York Academy of Science - Blocking Review
Blocking and Extremes in Turkey
The decade of the 2010s - tropical cyclone activity
Kononova and Lupo 2020: Climate, Flow Regimes, and Natural Disasters in Russia
Phung et al. 2020: Climate and Land Use in an Agriculture Watershed
Lebedeva et al. 2020 Sugarbeet production variability in Belgorod - collaboration with my colleagues at BSNRU
Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts of Precipitation in Turkey
Efe et al. 2019 Blocking impacts on Temperature in Turkey
Large-Scale dynamics and climate variability, Editorial note.
Blocking as of 2018 - 20 years after Wiedenmann et al. 2002
Wood et al 2019 - The great Central MO Eclipse experiment
Rabinowitz et al 2018 - Blocking a heavy rain in the Misssouri Region
Lebedeva et al 2017 - Bioclimatic Potential - followup Henson et al. 2016
Precipitation and CoCoRaHs data in MO - Simpson et al. 2017
Bering Sea Rule / East Asian Rule - Renken et al. 2017
Symmetry and Asymmetry in ENSO
Extreme (3-sigma) Monthly Temps and Precip
The APO Index: Wang and Lupo
Lightning Flash Density with Josh and Docs group
Paper with Josh Kastman: RRDOZ
Henson et al. ENSO/PDO impacts on Crop Production
Matveev et al. 2016: Tree Ring analysis of Climate - Long Term - Voronezh Region
Chendev et al. 2016: Afforestation - Belgorod - Iowa
Newberry et al. 2016: Spring to Summer transitions
Lebedeva et al. 2015: Hemispheric Scale Weather regimes and the impact on weather in SW Russia.
The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF part II! Case Studies We're page 51-55
The Bering Sea and Typhoon Rule LRF Techniques. We're page 46-50
Petin et al. 2014 - Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Belgorod region.
Hubbart et al. 2014 - More on the Heat Island studies.
Chendev et al. 2013 Applied Geography
Lupo et al. 2012 - Midwest Dewpoint trends and variability- NWD
Chendev Petin and Lupo 2012, Geography, Environment, Sustainability - Soils as an Indicator......
Journal of Freshwater Ecology 2012, Fish Feeding and the Weather, Lupo et al.
Corn crop and drought Variability in the last century- M. Stambaugh, R. Guyette, et al.
Hey wait a minute....I wrote a book.....chapter on hurricane variability
Tropical storms influencing Missouri, 2010 - Transactions of the Missouri Academy
Birk et al. 2010 - Midwest climate
Market et al. 2009
Letter to Journal of the AMA - 2008
Latham et al and hurricanes 2008
Moon et al and CoCoRaHs 2009
Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo response 2008
Journal of Missouri Medicine Invited paper - Lupo 2008
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres - Zuki and Lupo 2008
National Weather Digest: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part II application
Atmosfera: Kelsey et al. 2007 Part I
Journal of Climate: Barriopedro et al. 2006
Climate Change in Midwest Oaks
Snows: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2005
Snows: Physical Geography: Berger et al. 2002
Tornadoes: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Akyuz et al. 2004
Heat Island: Atmos. Sci. Let.: Buckley et al. 2008
Heat Island: Transactions: Grathwohl et al. 2009
Heat Island: Transactions MO Academy of Science: Lupo et al. 2004
Heat Island: National Weather Digest Lupo et al. 2003
TV-Precipitation-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Hagen et al. 2008
TV-Temperatures-Broadcast: National Weather Digest: Lupo et al. 2003
Article on Climate Modeling written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project
Article on Feedbacks written for ICECAP.US - International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project
Journal of Climate: Wiedenmann et al. 2002
WMO Report: Mokhov et al. 2002
Transactions, MO Academy of Sciences Ratley et al. 2002
Journal of Climate: Bals-Elsholtz et al. 2001
National Weather Digest: Lupo and Johnston, 2000 - take a look at the results we got!
Climate Dynamics: Lupo Oglesby Mokhov 1997
Tellus: Lupo and Smith 1995
Other PR Publications
Editorial - 10th Anniversary of Atmosphere: Stats and articles
Mokhov, Lupo, Prokofyeva Blocking Tendencies - WMO Technical Report
Publication history of NWD
NIPCC II 2013 Author Ch 1
NIPCC 2011 Contributor Ch 1 Reviewer
NIPCC 2009 Contributor Ch 6 Reviewer
BAMS Meeting Summary Advancing Renewables in the Midwest
BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS2
BAMS Meeting Summary WAFICUS1
Melick et al 2008 JGR Thundersnow and Stability
Market et al 2006 JGR Thundersnow
IPPC AR2 WG1 Ch 6 Cont. auth.
New Windchill Report 2003
The American Civil War 150 / Powerpoints
I have always had a keen interest in the American Civil War, and this year commemorates the 150th Anniversary of the start of this conflict. The early battles in Missouri are often overlooked as historians and Civil War buffs tend to focus on the imporance of Civil War Battles in the East. However, Missouri was an important battle ground and whether or not Missouri would ulimately secede may have been decided on the battlefield. The weather played a role in the outcome of some early battles. In cooperation with students James Michael Madden and John Moon III, we reconstruct the possible role played by weather in each of these skirmishes. Thanks go out to Dr. D.J. Burnette at the University of Arkansas whose temperature records from the era were helpful in reconstructing the weather. The Battle of Wilson's Creek was presented at the Missouri Academy of Science in 2009. The Battle of Carthage was presented a year later, and Legington in the same year.
The Battle of Carthage, MO, July 5th 1861
The Battle of Wilson's Creek, MO, August 9th - 10th 1861
The Battle of Lexington, MO, September 13th - 20th 1861
Presentations / Powerpoints
Drought in the Midwest: Given for the George Marshal Institute at the National Press Club 27 June 2006.
The Science of Drought and Flood Prediction: Drought 2012
My Take on Global Warming
Open Letter to the US House and Senate
My Presentation at COMET / COMAP June 2010 on predictability
My Presentation on Blocking at the Russian Academy of Science and the State University of NY at Oswego.
My Presentation to the 3rd International Conference on Climate Change
My Presentation to the 7th International Conference on Climate Change
Jensen and Lupo Presentation to the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly 2013
My Curriculum Vitae as of 27 July 2021
|Copyright © 2012 Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Missouri - Columbia